Climate scientists warn el niño 2026 poses severe risks to food security and women's health across Africa

Scientists have upgraded forecasts for el niño 2026 to predict one of the most severe climate events in recorded history, with projections of massive agricultural losses and particular danger to women in vulnerable regions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now estimates an 81 percent probability of a very strong el niño occurring during the October–December period, a sharp reversal from earlier forecasts. This strength would place the event alongside the devastating 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 episodes in terms of global impact.

Dramatic Shift in Climate Predictions

Expert consensus on el niño 2026 shifted dramatically between February and July. The World Meteorological Organisation initially reported only a 10 percent probability of el niño developing for the March–May season, favoring neutral conditions instead. However, NOAA's updated July advisory dramatically reversed this assessment, estimating a 97 percent chance that el niño conditions will persist through early spring 2027. Computer simulations run by NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory produced 30 separate models of coming months, with every single projection indicating peak strength at least competitive with the strongest events of the past century.

Global Economic and Agricultural Consequences

The economic toll is expected to be substantial. Global agricultural output faces a projected $342 billion loss, with smallholder farmers across Africa particularly vulnerable. Regional weather patterns will vary significantly: northern countries including Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are forecast to experience severe rainfall increases, while southern nations such as Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar face intense droughts. Both scenarios threaten food security and farmer incomes across the continent.

Disproportionate Impact on Women

Climate researchers and humanitarian organisations emphasise that women will bear the heaviest burden of el niño 2026's effects. Walter Mwasaa, regional director for CARE International in East and Southern Africa overseeing programmes across 12 countries, described the coming event as fundamentally a women's health problem. Women in rural and urban areas will face the largest health challenges while simultaneously bearing responsibility for family care during crisis conditions. Research demonstrates climate-induced disasters produce a 40 percent rise in child marriage in Bangladesh, while droughts in Somaliland force girls to spend hours fetching water instead of attending school. During periods of poor harvest, pregnant women and infants require dietary diversity that other community members do not, yet household resources are typically depleted post-disaster. Historical patterns show sons' education is prioritised over daughters' when savings decline.