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Harvard Astronomer Proposes Lost Soviet Mars Probe May Be Asteroid Headed for Japanese Spacecraft Encounter

A Harvard astronomer proposes that asteroid 1998 KY26, targeted by Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft, may be a defunct Soviet Mars probe.

Asude Karataş • 3 Haziran 2026 19:01 • 4 dk okuma • 10 görüntülenme

Astrophysicist Avi Loeb from Harvard has published a paper suggesting that an asteroid Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft is traveling toward may not be a natural space rock at all, but rather a derelict Soviet spacecraft that failed in 1988. The object, designated 1998 KY26, shares striking similarities with the lost Phobos 1 probe, according to the analysis.

İçindekiler ›

The Mysterious Target
An Unconventional Hypothesis
Scientific Skepticism and Future Examination

The Mysterious Target

Japan's Hayabusa2 completed a successful mission to asteroid Ryugu in 2018, collecting rock samples that were returned to Earth. The spacecraft is now en route to 1998 KY26, a rapidly rotating small asteroid that will become its next destination. The rendezvous is expected to occur in 2031, providing scientists with a unique opportunity to examine the object at close range.

Researchers have theorized that 1998 KY26 belongs to a category known as "dark comets," a classification inspired by the interstellar visitor Oumuamua, which was observed crossing the solar system in 2017. Dark comets exhibit characteristics of both traditional asteroids and comets, challenging conventional understanding of how these objects behave.

An Unconventional Hypothesis

Loeb and his colleagues propose a far more speculative explanation in their paper, which has not yet undergone peer review. They identify the asteroid as potentially matching the Phobos 1 probe, a mission launched by the Soviet space program that experienced a catastrophic failure in 1988. The probe lost all contact in August of that year due to a command upload error—specifically, a missing hyphen in the transmission that disabled critical systems.

The researchers argue that corrective thruster firings performed on the damaged spacecraft could have altered its trajectory into an orbit statistically compatible with that of 1998 KY26. Both objects share comparable dimensions and possess an elongated shape. However, Loeb acknowledges the hypothesis represents a significant departure from mainstream planetary science, given the improbable odds of a lost spacecraft remaining in a discoverable trajectory decades later.

Scientific Skepticism and Future Examination

Despite the unconventional nature of the proposal, Loeb contends that scientists should expand their investigative frameworks to account for technological artifacts alongside natural phenomena. The hypothesis remains speculative until Hayabusa2 reaches its destination and transmits detailed observations of 1998 KY26's composition and structural characteristics.

What is 1998 KY26 and why is Japan sending a spacecraft to it?+

1998 KY26 is a small, rapidly rotating asteroid in near-Earth space. Japan's Hayabusa2 probe, which successfully sampled asteroid Ryugu and returned material to Earth in 2018, has been redirected toward this object as its next mission target, scheduled to arrive in 2031. The close encounter will allow scientists to conduct detailed observations and gather data about the object's composition and physical characteristics.

Who is Avi Loeb and why is he proposing this theory?+

Avi Loeb is an astronomer at Harvard University who has become known for proposing unconventional explanations for unusual astronomical phenomena, most notably his research into the interstellar object Oumuamua. In his recent paper, Loeb argues that scientists should consider the possibility that seemingly natural space objects could have technological origins, expanding the scope of how the scientific community approaches discovery and classification.

What was Phobos 1 and why did it fail?+

Phobos 1 was a Soviet space probe launched in 1988 with the objective of studying Mars and its moon Phobos. The mission failed in August 1988, just two months after launch, when a command upload containing a typographical error—a missing hyphen—was transmitted to the spacecraft. This faulty instruction disabled essential systems, causing the probe to lose all communication and become permanently lost in space.

How plausible is Loeb's hypothesis among mainstream scientists?+

The hypothesis remains highly speculative and has not undergone formal peer review. While Loeb presents orbital calculations and physical similarities between 1998 KY26 and Phobos 1, the odds of a decades-old lost spacecraft remaining in a discoverable trajectory are considered extremely low by most researchers. The scientific community generally regards the object as a natural dark comet, though the upcoming Hayabusa2 encounter in 2031 could provide definitive evidence either way.

What will Hayabusa2 do when it reaches 1998 KY26?+

When Hayabusa2 arrives at 1998 KY26 in 2031, it will conduct detailed scientific observations of the object, transmitting high-resolution imagery and data about its composition, structure, and physical properties. These observations will help determine whether the object is a natural asteroid, a dark comet, or potentially something else entirely, thereby testing Loeb's controversial hypothesis.

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