Trump's State Approval Ratings Decline Significantly as Midterm Elections Near

President Donald Trump enters the final three months before midterm elections facing substantially weakened approval ratings across the nation. State-by-state polling data shows Trump underwater in every major swing state, creating potential vulnerabilities for Republican candidates seeking to maintain control of Congress.

Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll, which surveyed 120,580 registered voters, reveals Trump's current net approval rating stands at -23 points nationally—calculated as approval minus disapproval. This represents a significant deterioration compared to his positioning ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, when he held a net approval of -10 points. At that earlier time, Trump commanded 43 percent approval against 53 percent disapproval. His current standing is also slightly weaker than President Joe Biden's -19 net rating at a comparable point before the 2022 midterms.

Swing State Vulnerability

The geographic breakdown reveals particular weakness in competitive battleground states that will likely determine congressional control. Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, a nonprofit focused on independent voters, characterized Trump's position as "pretty rough," describing it as a "collapse among the middle third of the electorate." Loyd emphasized that Trump's double-digit underwater numbers in major battlegrounds mean Republican incumbents cannot rely on his endorsement to secure victory in November.

However, Loyd cautioned against assumptions that Trump's unpopularity automatically benefits Democrats. "It's not an automatic green light for Democrats either," he stated, noting that the opposition party cannot assume dissatisfaction with the administration will translate into affirmative voter support for their candidates.

Post-Midterm Strategy

Despite these approval challenges, Trump appears unconcerned about the midterm outcome itself. According to reporting from Axios, Trump's advisers indicated he could emerge "just as strong, or even stronger" within the Republican Party regardless of whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress after the elections. Trump's focus appears directed toward maintaining influence over the Republican Party and shaping the 2028 presidential race, rather than securing immediate victories in the midterm contests.