Mass migration drives sharp decline in British youth employment opportunities

A sharp divergence in youth employment patterns has emerged in Britain, with analysis revealing that non-EU migration is displacing young British workers from entry-level positions. Between January 2020 and December 2025, the number of non-EU workers aged under 25 on UK payrolls surged by 355 per cent, while the young British workforce grew by just 0.3 per cent. The Centre for Social Justice calculates that 27 young non-EU migrants have been hired for every additional young British employee over this five-year period.

Employment figures reveal stark contrasts

The payroll data paints a concerning picture for British youth employment. Non-EU workers under 25 jumped from 82,000 in January 2020 to 370,000 in December 2025—an increase of 290,000 individuals. By contrast, the number of UK nationals under 25 on payrolls rose by only 11,000 over the same timeframe. Meanwhile, the cohort of young people not in employment, education or training surged by approximately 200,000, bringing the total to nearly one million 16 to 24-year-olds classified as NEET.

The divergence has worsened significantly in recent months. Between December 2024 and December 2025 alone, non-EU workers under 25 increased by 33,200 positions, while UK nationals in the same age group experienced a decline of 32,200 positions. This reversal underscores an accelerating trend that threatens to entrench disadvantage among British youth.

Concentration in entry-level sectors

The employment shift is most pronounced in retail and hospitality—industries that historically served as gateway sectors for young British workers entering the labour market. Non-EU workers of all ages in these sectors increased by nearly 473,000 between January 2020 and December 2025, nearly doubling their presence. During the same period, UK nationals employed in retail and hospitality fell by over 252,000. This substitution effect suggests that young Britons are being systematically displaced from the initial career pathways traditionally available to them.

Policy responses under consideration

The Centre for Social Justice has proposed targeted interventions to reverse the trend. These include the Future Workforce Credit, described as an effective tax cut worth 30 per cent of a NEET's salary to incentivize employer hiring of young British workers. The think tank also advocates for tightening health-related benefits for young people with less severe mental health conditions, redirecting savings toward NHS talking therapies, employment support, and expanded vocational training routes. Additionally, the think tank calls for reinstatement of the Resident Labour Market Test, which previously required employers to advertise vacancies domestically before offering roles through work visa schemes before its abolition under the points-based immigration system.